Brescia 2-0 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Vicenza Virtus meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Vicenza Virtus's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Brescia, 1.30 for Vicenza Virtus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Brescia 1W, Vicenza Virtus 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Vicenza Virtus half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 58% versus Vicenza Virtus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 36% | Vicenza Virtus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.75 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.063 / defence 1.233 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.730 / defence 1.575. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.057. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.575 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Brescia games / 31 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 54% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 18%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Vicenza Virtus 5.56. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 60% | Vicenza Virtus 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 54% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Brescia 1.75 / Vicenza Virtus 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.063 / def 1.233 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.730 / def 1.575 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Brescia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Vicenza Virtus xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Brescia 2 - 0 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 54% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brescia and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Vicenza Virtus?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Vicenza Virtus 0W.
What form are Brescia and Vicenza Virtus in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.06x the league average against Vicenza Virtus's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.73x) against Brescia's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
54%
1.87
29%
3.50
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.70
0.95
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
32.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Brescia and 0.95 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia's recent record stands at 14W 12D 5L from 31 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 19L across 31 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brescia by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 5W 7D 3L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vicenza Virtus's away record stands at 2W 2D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.00 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Vicenza Virtus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 14W 12D 5L in their last 31 games (1.74 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 6W 6D 19L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Brescia's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.47 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Brescia or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Brescia
0
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Brescia 2-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Vicenza Virtus?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 67%, Vicenza Virtus 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Brescia) and 60% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brescia's games and 47% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Brescia's recent games and 60% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vicenza Virtus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Vicenza Virtus 2-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.75 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.95 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.73 / defence 1.57, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 54% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 18%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Vicenza Virtus 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.