Brescia 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Brescia (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Benevento have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Brescia's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Brescia, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Benevento 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 39% | Benevento 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.12 xG and Benevento 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.155 / defence 0.878 | Benevento attack 0.972 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.089. Benevento's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Brescia games / 43 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 60% | Benevento 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Brescia 1.12 / Benevento 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.155 / def 0.878 | Benevento attack 0.972 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Brescia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Benevento xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Benevento kick off?
Brescia vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Benevento?
Brescia 1 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Brescia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Benevento part of?
Brescia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Brescia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Benevento?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 1 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Brescia and Benevento in?
Brescia (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.16) and Benevento's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.97x) against Brescia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.31
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.05
0.93
Benevento xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Brescia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Brescia and 0.93 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 22W 15D 9L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 22W 10D 14L from 46 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Brescia against 1.65 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (11W 8D 4L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 10W 6D 7L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.48 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Benevento in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 22W 15D 9L in their last 46 games (1.76 PPG), while Benevento have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Benevento away?
Brescia's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.78 PPG; Benevento away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Brescia or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Benevento in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Brescia
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Benevento 1-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Benevento?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 61%, Benevento 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Brescia and 22% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Benevento in 39%; Benevento in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Brescia's recent matches and 30% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Brescia's recent games and 22% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Benevento tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Benevento in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Benevento 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Benevento 1-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.12 xG and Benevento 0.93 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benevento landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Benevento attack 0.97 / defence 0.76, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 39%, Benevento 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.76 PPG, Benevento 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.