Benevento 0-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sudtirol have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Sudtirol are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Benevento, 0 for Sudtirol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 46% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 27% | Sudtirol 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.77 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.790 / defence 1.134 | Sudtirol attack 0.862 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.015. Benevento's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Benevento games / 26 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Sudtirol 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Benevento's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 50% | Sudtirol 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Benevento 0.77 / Sudtirol 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.790 / def 1.134 | Sudtirol attack 0.862 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sudtirol xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Sudtirol kick off?
Benevento vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Benevento 0 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Benevento vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Sudtirol part of?
Benevento vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 26% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Benevento and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Benevento and Sudtirol in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.79) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.86x) against Benevento's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
26%
3.81
35%
2.84
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Benevento xG
Total xG
1.76
0.99
Sudtirol xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 17.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Benevento and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Benevento and 0.99 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento's recent record stands at 6W 9D 11L from 26 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 5L across 26 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 6W 3D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.08 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 10W 11D 5L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.00 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Benevento or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Benevento 0-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Sudtirol 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Benevento and 25% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 50%; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 25% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 25% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Benevento 0-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.77 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Sudtirol attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 26% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 38%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 27%, Sudtirol 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.