Benevento 5-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Benevento welcome Pisa to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Pisa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.80 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Benevento, 1 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 43% versus Pisa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 37% | Pisa 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.36 xG and Pisa 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.327 / defence 1.060 | Pisa attack 0.762 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.056. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Benevento games / 31 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 46% | Draw 34% | Pisa 21%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Pisa 4.76. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 50% | Pisa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 46% | Draw 34% | Pisa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Benevento 1.36 / Pisa 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.327 / def 1.060 | Pisa attack 0.762 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Benevento (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Pisa kick off?
Benevento vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Benevento 5 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Benevento vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Pisa part of?
Benevento vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 46% chance of winning, Pisa a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benevento and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Benevento and Pisa in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.33) and Pisa's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
46%
2.18
34%
2.97
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.21
0.85
Pisa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Benevento and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Benevento and 0.85 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 14W 9D 7L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 15W 10D 5L from 30 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.70 PPG, Pisa on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 7W 4D 4L from 15 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.30 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Pisa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Pisa in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Pisa have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Pisa away?
Benevento's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.87 PPG; Pisa away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Benevento or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pisa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Benevento
1
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 47%, Pisa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Benevento) and 27% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pisa in 33%; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Pisa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Benevento's recent matches and 47% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Benevento's recent games and 27% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Pisa tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benevento run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Pisa 5-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.36 xG and Pisa 0.85 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.33 / defence 1.06 against Pisa attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 46% | Draw 34% | Pisa 21%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 37%, Pisa 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.70 PPG, Pisa 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.