Benevento 3-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Benevento welcome Monza to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Thursday 13 January 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Serie B appearances (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monza have gone 1W 6D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benevento 1.90 PPG, Monza 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Monza in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 41% versus Monza 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 41% | Monza 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.36 xG and Monza 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.283 / defence 1.113 | Monza attack 0.720 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.232. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Benevento games / 17 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 44% | Monza 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Jan 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Benevento 1.36 / Monza 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.283 / def 1.113 | Monza attack 0.720 / def 1.079 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Benevento (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Monza xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Monza kick off?
Benevento vs Monza kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 13 January 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Monza?
Benevento 3 - 1 Monza.
Where is Benevento vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Monza part of?
Benevento vs Monza is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 44% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Benevento and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Monza in?
Benevento (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Monza (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benevento's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.39
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.35
0.99
Monza xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Benevento and 0.99 for Monza, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 4D 4L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (8W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.82 PPG, Monza on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benevento's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (1W 6D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.41 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Monza in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Monza in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Monza have gone 8W 7D 2L in their last 17 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Monza away?
Benevento's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.89 PPG; Monza away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Benevento or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Monza in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Monza runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Monza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Monza 3-0 Benevento.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 44%, Monza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benevento) and 22% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Monza in 33%; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Monza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Benevento's recent matches and 56% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benevento's recent games and 22% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Monza tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Monza in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Monza 3-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.36 xG and Monza 0.99 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.28 / defence 1.11 against Monza attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 41%, Monza 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.82 PPG, Monza 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.