Benevento 0-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 1 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brescia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Benevento, 1.80 for Brescia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 40% versus Brescia 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 30% | Brescia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.64 xG and Brescia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.318 / defence 1.014 | Brescia attack 1.100 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.017 / away 1.137. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Benevento games / 10 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Brescia 27%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Brescia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 40% | Brescia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Brescia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Benevento 1.64 / Brescia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.318 / def 1.014 | Brescia attack 1.100 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.017 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Benevento (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Brescia xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Brescia kick off?
Benevento vs Brescia kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Brescia?
Benevento 0 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Benevento vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Brescia part of?
Benevento vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 44% chance of winning, Brescia a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Benevento and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Brescia in?
Benevento (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Brescia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.32) and Brescia's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (1.10x) against Benevento's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.50
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.91
1.27
Brescia xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
5%
18.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Benevento and 1.27 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 5W 4D 1L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Benevento against 1.80 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Benevento have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 2.10 scored and 1.40 conceded. Brescia's attacking output running into Benevento's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia in 70%.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Brescia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Brescia have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Brescia away?
Benevento's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.20 PPG; Brescia away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Benevento or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Brescia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Brescia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Benevento 1-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 40%, Brescia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Benevento and 60% for Brescia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Benevento's recent matches and 60% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Benevento's matches and 60% of Brescia's.
Do Benevento and Brescia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Brescia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Benevento 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Benevento 0-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.64 xG and Brescia 1.27 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Benevento fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.32 / defence 1.01 against Brescia attack 1.10 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Brescia 27%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 30%, Brescia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.90 PPG, Brescia 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.