Bari 0-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale San Nicola plays host to Bari versus Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 28 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Bari (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bari against 1.30 for Perugia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bari 1W, Perugia 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Bari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 52% versus Perugia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 48% | Perugia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.61 xG and Perugia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.318 / defence 1.082 | Perugia attack 0.898 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.054. Bari carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 Bari games / 59 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 50% | Draw 26% | Perugia 23%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Perugia 4.35. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Perugia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 50% | Draw 26% | Perugia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Bari 1.61 / Perugia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.318 / def 1.082 | Perugia attack 0.898 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Bari (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Perugia xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Perugia kick off?
Bari vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Perugia?
Bari 0 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Bari vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Perugia part of?
Bari vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 50% chance of winning, Perugia a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bari and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 0 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Bari and Perugia in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Perugia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.32) and Perugia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.90x) against Bari's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.79
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bari xG
Total xG
2.64
1.02
Perugia xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bari and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bari and 1.02 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 9D 4L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Perugia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bari's home form reads 3W 5D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 0.90 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Perugia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 8W 9D 4L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Perugia have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Perugia away?
Bari's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.40 PPG; Perugia away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Bari or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Perugia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bari
0
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Bari 0-2 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 60%, Perugia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Bari) and 30% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 30% of games; Perugia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bari's recent matches and 40% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Bari's recent games and 30% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Perugia tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Perugia in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Bari 0-2 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.61 xG and Perugia 1.02 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bari fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Perugia outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.32 / defence 1.08 against Perugia attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 50% | Draw 26% | Perugia 23%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Perugia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 48%, Perugia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Perugia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.