Bari 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 41%, yet in-form Palermo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bari vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale San Nicola plays host to Bari versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 19 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Serie B outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 2.00 PPG clear of Bari in recent Serie B fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.30 xG and Palermo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.874 / defence 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.131. Data: 1 Bari games / 1 Palermo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bari 41% | Draw 27% | Palermo 31%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Palermo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 41% | Draw 27% | Palermo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Bari 1.30 / Palermo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.874 / def 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Bari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Palermo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Palermo kick off?
Bari vs Palermo kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Palermo?
Bari 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Bari vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Palermo part of?
Bari vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 41% chance of winning, Palermo a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bari and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Palermo in?
Bari (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Palermo (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.87) and Palermo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.85x) against Bari's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.65
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bari xG
Total xG
2.41
1.10
Palermo xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bari and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bari and 1.10 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bari's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bari heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Bari's scoring rate against Palermo's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Palermo in 0%.
Defensively: Palermo in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Palermo in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Palermo have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Bari or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Palermo in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Palermo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bari 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Bari's recent matches and 0% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Bari's recent games and 0% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Palermo tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Palermo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Palermo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.30 xG and Palermo 1.10 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Palermo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bari 41% | Draw 27% | Palermo 31%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 100%, Palermo 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bari managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.