Bari 3-1 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Lecco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Lecco at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Bari — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecco stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecco have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bari) versus 0.80 (Lecco). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bari register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lecco in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bari, 1 for Lecco and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Lecco winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lecco in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Lecco 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 39% | Lecco 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.67 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.868 / defence 0.995 | Lecco attack 0.853 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.215. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Bari games / 23 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 26% | Lecco 22%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Lecco 4.55. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bari 60% | Lecco 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 26% | Lecco 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Bari 1.67 / Lecco 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.868 / def 0.995 | Lecco attack 0.853 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Bari (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lecco xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Lecco kick off?
Bari vs Lecco kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Lecco?
Bari 3 - 1 Lecco.
Where is Bari vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Lecco part of?
Bari vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 51% chance of winning, Lecco a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bari and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Lecco?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 0 | Lecco 1W.
What form are Bari and Lecco in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Lecco (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.87) and Lecco's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
51%
1.94
26%
3.84
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Bari xG
Total xG
2.70
1.03
Lecco xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Bari and 1.03 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Bari have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 12D 6L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecco's form line: 5W 5D 13L from 23 games, 0.87 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.17 PPG, Lecco on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (3W 6D 2L).
On the road, Lecco have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.09 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Lecco in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 5W 12D 6L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Lecco have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Lecco away?
Bari's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.36 PPG; Lecco away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bari
0
Draws
1
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Lecco have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Bari 3-1 Lecco.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 54%, Lecco 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bari) and 64% (Lecco).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 36% of games; Lecco in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Lecco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bari's games and 64% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bari's recent games and 64% of Lecco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Lecco tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Lecco in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Lecco 3-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.67 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Lecco attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 51% | Draw 26% | Lecco 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 39%, Lecco 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lecco's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.17 PPG, Lecco 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lecco (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.