Bari 2-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Frosinone.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to face Bari in Serie B (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Bari (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bari's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Bari against 1.10 for Frosinone. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bari, 1 for Frosinone and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Bari 3–0 Frosinone — a Bari win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 57% versus Frosinone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 34% | Frosinone 54%). Note also that Frosinone surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.44 xG and Frosinone 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.032 / defence 0.977 | Frosinone attack 0.739 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.107. Frosinone's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Bari's last 61 games and Frosinone's last 23.
Result probabilities: Bari 50% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 19%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.99 | Draw 3.22 | Frosinone 5.31. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 50% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 50% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Bari 1.44 / Frosinone 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.032 / def 0.977 | Frosinone attack 0.739 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Bari (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Frosinone xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Bari vs Frosinone kick off?
Bari vs Frosinone kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Frosinone?
Bari 2 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Bari vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Frosinone part of?
Bari vs Frosinone is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 50% chance of winning, Frosinone a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bari and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Bari vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bari's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.74x) against Bari's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 61 games and Frosinone's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.22
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Bari xG
Total xG
2.24
0.80
Frosinone xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bari and 0.80 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari come into this having played 61 games, going 14W 29D 18L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 0.92 PPG from 61 outings (12W 20D 29L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Bari against 0.92 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bari's home form reads 10W 14D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 30 away games (3W 11D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.02 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
Bari (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Bari vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 14W 29D 18L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 12W 20D 29L in their last 61 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Frosinone away?
Bari's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.47 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Bari and Frosinone, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Frosinone have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won Frosinone 0-3 Bari on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
1
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Frosinone?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 2, Frosinone have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bari and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 March 2026: Frosinone 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 60%, Frosinone 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bari) and 43% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Frosinone matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bari's games and 57% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bari and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bari's recent games and 43% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Bari's recent matches and 73% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Frosinone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Frosinone 2-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.44 xG and Frosinone 0.80 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Frosinone attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 50% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 19%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 34%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.16 PPG, Frosinone 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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