Ascoli 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to face Ascoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Venezia have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Venezia are 0.70 PPG clear of Ascoli in recent Serie B fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ascoli 1W, Venezia 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Venezia — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 51% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 39% | Venezia 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.09 xG and Venezia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.931 / defence 0.894 | Venezia attack 1.235 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.242. Venezia have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Ascoli games / 69 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 28% | Draw 30% | Venezia 42%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 50% | Venezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 28% | Draw 30% | Venezia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Ascoli 1.09 / Venezia 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.931 / def 0.894 | Venezia attack 1.235 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Venezia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Venezia xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Venezia kick off?
Ascoli vs Venezia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Venezia?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Ascoli vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Venezia part of?
Ascoli vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 28% chance of winning, Venezia a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ascoli and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Venezia in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.24x) against Ascoli's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
28%
3.54
30%
3.32
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.46
1.37
Venezia xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.37 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ascoli's recent record stands at 19W 21D 29L from 69 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 23L across 69 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ascoli heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 10W 12D 12L from 34 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 12W 8D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.58 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Venezia in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 19W 21D 29L in their last 69 games (1.13 PPG), while Venezia have gone 30W 16D 23L in their last 69 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.24 PPG; Venezia away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Venezia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ascoli) and 53% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 35% of games; Venezia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ascoli's recent matches and 53% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ascoli's recent games and 53% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Venezia tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 32, as Ascoli and Venezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.09 xG and Venezia 1.37 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Venezia attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 28% | Draw 30% | Venezia 42%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 39%, Venezia 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.