Ascoli 0-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reggina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Reggina travel to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to take on Ascoli. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season.
Reggina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.60 PPG, Reggina 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ascoli, 0 for Reggina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Reggina in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 54% versus Reggina 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 41% | Reggina 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.90 xG and Reggina 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.982 / defence 1.117 | Reggina attack 0.969 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.085. Data: 56 Ascoli games / 56 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 26% | Draw 34% | Reggina 40%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Reggina 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 60% | Reggina 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 26% | Draw 34% | Reggina 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Ascoli 0.90 / Reggina 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.982 / def 1.117 | Reggina attack 0.969 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Reggina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Reggina xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Reggina kick off?
Ascoli vs Reggina kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Reggina?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Ascoli vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Reggina part of?
Ascoli vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 26% chance of winning, Reggina a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ascoli and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Reggina?
Record (2 meetings): Ascoli 2W | Draws 0 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Reggina in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Reggina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
26%
3.87
34%
2.92
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.08
1.18
Reggina xG
3.87
26%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.7 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.18 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli come into this having played 56 games, going 24W 15D 17L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 1.45 PPG from 56 outings (23W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.55 PPG, Reggina on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ascoli's home form reads 9W 10D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggina have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.07 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Reggina in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 24W 15D 17L in their last 56 games (1.55 PPG), while Reggina have gone 23W 12D 21L in their last 56 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Reggina away?
Ascoli's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.32 PPG; Reggina away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Reggina in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Reggina runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ascoli's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ascoli
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Reggina 1-0 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 54%, Reggina 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Ascoli and 21% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 32% of games; Reggina in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ascoli's recent matches and 32% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ascoli's recent games and 21% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Reggina tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Reggina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.90 xG and Reggina 1.18 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Reggina attack 0.97 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 26% | Draw 34% | Reggina 40%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 41%, Reggina 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggina's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.55 PPG, Reggina 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.