Ascoli 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Parma meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 2W 2D 3L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Parma (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Ascoli, 1.10 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ascoli 67% and Parma 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 47% | Parma 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.28 xG and Parma 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.877 / defence 1.236 | Parma attack 0.966 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.183. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Ascoli games / 15 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 33% | Draw 27% | Parma 39%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 57% | Parma 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 33% | Draw 27% | Parma 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Ascoli 1.28 / Parma 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.877 / def 1.236 | Parma attack 0.966 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Parma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Parma xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Parma kick off?
Ascoli vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Parma?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Ascoli vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Parma part of?
Ascoli vs Parma is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 33% chance of winning, Parma a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ascoli and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Parma in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.88x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.97x) against Ascoli's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.67
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.69
1.41
Parma xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.41 for Parma, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli's recent record stands at 7W 4D 4L from 15 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 5L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Parma heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Parma's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Parma in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Parma in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Parma have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Parma away?
Ascoli's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.14 PPG; Parma away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ascoli
2
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Parma have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Parma 1-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 57%, Parma 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ascoli) and 86% (Parma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ascoli's games and 71% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Ascoli's matches and 86% of Parma's.
Do Ascoli and Parma tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Parma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 16, as Ascoli and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.28 xG and Parma 1.41 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Parma attack 0.97 / defence 1.45, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 33% | Draw 27% | Parma 39%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 47%, Parma 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.