Ascoli 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to face Ascoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genoa have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Genoa — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 54% versus Genoa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 41% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.23 xG and Genoa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.055 / defence 1.228 | Genoa attack 0.925 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.117. Data: 54 Ascoli games / 16 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 34% | Draw 30% | Genoa 36%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 70% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 34% | Draw 30% | Genoa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Ascoli 1.23 / Genoa 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.055 / def 1.228 | Genoa attack 0.925 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Genoa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Genoa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Genoa kick off?
Ascoli vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Genoa?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Ascoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Genoa part of?
Ascoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 34% chance of winning, Genoa a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ascoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Genoa in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (1.05) and Genoa's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.93x) against Ascoli's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.28
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
Genoa xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.27 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 23W 14D 17L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 11W 21D 22L from 54 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ascoli are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 6W 8D 13L from 27 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.83 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 23W 14D 17L in their last 54 games (1.54 PPG), while Genoa have gone 11W 21D 22L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Genoa away?
Ascoli's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.33 PPG; Genoa away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ascoli
1
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Genoa 2-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 56%, Genoa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ascoli) and 44% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 30% of games; Genoa in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ascoli's recent matches and 44% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ascoli's recent games and 44% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Genoa tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Genoa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 17, as Ascoli and Genoa drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.23 xG and Genoa 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.05 / defence 1.23 against Genoa attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 34% | Draw 30% | Genoa 36%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 41%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.