Ascoli 2-3 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brescia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ascoli welcome Brescia to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 4W 0D 1L from 5 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have recorded 3W 2D 0L from 5 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (Ascoli) versus 2.20 (Brescia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Brescia trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ascoli 40% and Brescia 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 40% | Brescia 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.90 xG and Brescia 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.739 / defence 1.133 | Brescia attack 1.069 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.430. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Ascoli games / 5 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 17% | Draw 28% | Brescia 55%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Brescia 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 40% | Brescia 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 17% | Draw 28% | Brescia 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Ascoli 0.90 / Brescia 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.739 / def 1.133 | Brescia attack 1.069 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Brescia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Brescia xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Brescia kick off?
Ascoli vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Brescia?
Ascoli 2 - 3 Brescia.
Where is Ascoli vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Brescia part of?
Ascoli vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 17% chance of winning, Brescia a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ascoli and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Brescia in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Brescia (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.74) and Brescia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
17%
5.81
28%
3.57
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.63
1.73
Brescia xG
5.81
17%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
3%
32.84
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.73 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Brescia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Ascoli have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 4W 0D 1L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brescia's form line: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 2.40 PPG, Brescia on 2.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Brescia's attacking output running into Ascoli's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia in 80%.
Defensively: Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Brescia in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Brescia have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
Have Ascoli or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Brescia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ascoli's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ascoli
3
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Brescia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 40%, Brescia 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Ascoli and 80% for Brescia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Ascoli's games and 80% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Ascoli's matches and 80% of Brescia's.
Do Ascoli and Brescia tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brescia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Ascoli 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Ascoli 2-3 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.90 xG and Brescia 1.73 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ascoli beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.74 / defence 1.13 against Brescia attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 17% | Draw 28% | Brescia 55%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 40%, Brescia 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 2.40 PPG, Brescia 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.