Venezia 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Venezia welcome Bologna to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Venezia have gone 0W 6D 4L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Venezia's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Bologna — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Venezia have won 2, Bologna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Venezia 0–3 Bologna — a Bologna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 55% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 57% | Bologna 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 59% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.88 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.647 / defence 0.901 | Bologna attack 0.966 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.205. Venezia's attack rating of 0.647 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Venezia's last 29 games and Bologna's last 67.
Result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 35% | Bologna 37%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.57 | Draw 2.85 | Bologna 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 35% | Bologna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Venezia 0.88 / Bologna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.647 / def 0.901 | Bologna attack 0.966 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Bologna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bologna xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Bologna kick off?
Venezia vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Bologna?
Venezia 0 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Venezia vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Bologna part of?
Venezia vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 28% chance of winning, Bologna a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Venezia and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Venezia vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.65) and Bologna's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 29 games and Bologna's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
28%
3.57
35%
2.85
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Venezia xG
Total xG
1.93
1.05
Bologna xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Venezia and 1.05 for Bologna, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 17D 25L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.81 PPG from 67 outings (32W 25D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Venezia's home form reads 17W 7D 9L across their last 33 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 33 away games (11W 15D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.54 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
Venezia (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Venezia vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Bologna in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 17D 25L in their last 67 games (1.37 PPG), while Bologna have gone 32W 25D 10L in their last 67 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Bologna away?
Venezia's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.76 PPG; Bologna away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Venezia or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bologna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Bologna have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bologna won Bologna 3-0 Venezia.
Venezia's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bologna?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 2, Bologna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Venezia 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 61%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 54% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Bologna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Venezia's games and 58% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 54% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Venezia's recent matches and 73% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Venezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Venezia 0-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.88 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.65 / defence 0.90 against Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 28% | Draw 35% | Bologna 37%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 57%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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