Udinese 2-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Torino travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Dacia Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Torino — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Torino are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Udinese, 1 for Torino and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Torino in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 52% versus Torino 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Torino 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.03 xG and Torino 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.928 / defence 1.354 | Torino attack 0.591 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.487. Data: 21 Udinese games / 22 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 29% | Draw 34% | Torino 37%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Torino 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 60% | Torino 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 29% | Draw 34% | Torino 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Udinese 1.03 / Torino 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.928 / def 1.354 | Torino attack 0.591 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Torino (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Torino xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Torino kick off?
Udinese vs Torino kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Torino?
Udinese 2 - 0 Torino.
Where is Udinese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Torino part of?
Udinese vs Torino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 29% chance of winning, Torino a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Udinese and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 0 | Torino 1W.
What form are Udinese and Torino in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Torino (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.93x the league average against Torino's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
29%
3.41
34%
2.99
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.22
1.19
Torino xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.99
34%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Udinese and 1.19 for Torino, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 9D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Torino sit at 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 2W 5D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Torino have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Torino's season.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.38 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Torino in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Torino have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Torino away?
Udinese's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.10 PPG; Torino away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Torino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Udinese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Udinese
2
Draws
5
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Torino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 60%, Torino 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Udinese and 20% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 30% of games; Torino in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Udinese's recent matches and 40% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 20% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Torino tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Torino in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Torino 2-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.03 xG and Torino 1.19 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 1.35 against Torino attack 0.59 / defence 1.00, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 29% | Draw 34% | Torino 37%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 48%, Torino 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Torino's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.