Udinese 1-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Udinese face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Napoli make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium to face Udinese in Serie A (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Monday 6 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Udinese have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Napoli's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Napoli have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 0.70 PPG clear of Udinese over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Napoli have the stronger record — 4 wins to Udinese's 0, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Udinese 1–4 Napoli — a Napoli win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Napoli have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 61%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Napoli — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 56% versus Napoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | Napoli 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 61% of the time, while Napoli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.06 xG and Napoli 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.860 / defence 1.200 | Napoli attack 1.219 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.155. Napoli have an above-average attack rating of 1.219, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Udinese's last 72 games and Napoli's last 72.
Result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 26% | Napoli 51%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.33 | Draw 3.89 | Napoli 1.95. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 70% (last 10 home games) | Napoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 26% | Napoli 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Udinese 1.06 / Napoli 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.860 / def 1.200 | Napoli attack 1.219 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Napoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Napoli xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Napoli FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Napoli kick off?
Udinese vs Napoli kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Napoli?
Udinese 1 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Udinese vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Napoli part of?
Udinese vs Napoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 23% chance of winning, Napoli a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Udinese and Napoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.22x) against Udinese's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 72 games and Napoli's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
23%
4.33
26%
3.89
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.75
1.69
Napoli xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
23.47
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Napoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Udinese and 1.69 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 72 games, going 15W 30D 27L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.94 PPG from 72 outings (41W 17D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 7W 18D 11L across their last 36 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.97 points per game from their last 36 away games (21W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.79 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Napoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Napoli Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Napoli in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 30D 27L in their last 72 games (1.04 PPG), while Napoli have gone 41W 17D 14L in their last 72 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.08 PPG; Napoli away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Udinese or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Napoli in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won Udinese 0-4 Napoli on 20 Sep 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Napoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Napoli?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 1, Napoli have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Napoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Napoli 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Napoli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Udinese) and 47% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 36%; Napoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Napoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Napoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Udinese's recent matches and 44% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Napoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Udinese's recent games and 47% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Napoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Udinese's recent matches and 69% of Napoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Udinese and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.06 xG and Napoli 1.69 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Napoli attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 23% | Draw 26% | Napoli 51%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, Napoli 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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