Udinese 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dacia Arena plays host to Udinese versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 3L across 9 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 2D 2L at Dacia Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hellas Verona have collected 1.22 PPG across 9 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 4L. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.22 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.11 PPG for Udinese against 1.22 for Hellas Verona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 89%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 44% and Hellas Verona 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Udinese 44% | Hellas Verona 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.785 / defence 1.233 | Hellas Verona attack 0.937 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.473. Udinese's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Udinese games / 9 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 44%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Hellas Verona 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Hellas Verona 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Udinese 1.45 / Hellas Verona 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.785 / def 1.233 | Hellas Verona attack 0.937 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Hellas Verona xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Udinese 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Udinese vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Hellas Verona part of?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 33% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Udinese and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.94x) against Udinese's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
33%
3.04
23%
4.27
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.15
1.70
Hellas Verona xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Udinese and 1.70 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 4D 3L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Udinese against 1.22 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hellas Verona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 2.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Hellas Verona away?
Udinese's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
5
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 25%, Hellas Verona 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Udinese and 75% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Udinese's recent matches and 75% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Udinese's matches and 75% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Udinese and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Udinese and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 1.70 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Hellas Verona attack 0.94 / defence 1.40, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 33% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 44%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 44%, Hellas Verona 89%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.11 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.