Udinese 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hellas Verona (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli plays host to Udinese versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 25 August 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Udinese haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 2D 5L at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Udinese are significantly better at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hellas Verona haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hellas Verona are 0.70 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Hellas Verona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Hellas Verona 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Hellas Verona 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.14 xG and Hellas Verona 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.979 / defence 1.121 | Hellas Verona attack 0.944 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.134. Data: 38 Udinese games / 38 Hellas Verona games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 36%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Hellas Verona 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Hellas Verona 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Udinese 1.14 / Hellas Verona 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.979 / def 1.121 | Hellas Verona attack 0.944 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Udinese 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Udinese vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Hellas Verona part of?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 33% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Udinese and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Record (8 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 4 | Hellas Verona 3W.
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Udinese (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.94x) against Udinese's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.16
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Udinese and 1.20 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 8D 18L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. Udinese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.97 PPG from 38 outings (10W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. Hellas Verona haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Udinese against 0.97 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 7W 3D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.89 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Pre-Season
Hellas Verona
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 10W 7D 21L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Hellas Verona away?
Udinese's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.26 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
5
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 42%, Hellas Verona 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Udinese) and 37% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 32% of games; Hellas Verona in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Udinese's recent matches and 47% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Udinese's recent games and 37% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.14 xG and Hellas Verona 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Hellas Verona attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 33% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 36%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Hellas Verona 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.16 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.