Udinese 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Dacia Arena to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bologna have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Udinese against 1.30 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Udinese have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bologna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bologna — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 62% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 54% | Bologna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.84 xG and Bologna 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.043 / defence 0.965 | Bologna attack 0.961 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.142. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Udinese games / 55 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 24% | Bologna 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 70% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 24% | Bologna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Udinese 1.84 / Bologna 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.043 / def 0.965 | Bologna attack 0.961 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Udinese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bologna xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Bologna kick off?
Udinese vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Udinese 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Udinese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Bologna part of?
Udinese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 55% chance of winning, Bologna a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Udinese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 2 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Udinese and Bologna in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.96x) against Udinese's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.11
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.90
1.06
Bologna xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
3%
30.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Udinese and 1.06 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 21D 17L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (17W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Udinese against 1.18 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 9W 11D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.18 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 21D 17L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Bologna have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Bologna away?
Udinese's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.41 PPG; Bologna away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
5
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 67%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 59% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Udinese's games and 56% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Udinese's matches and 59% of Bologna's.
Do Udinese and Bologna tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bologna in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Udinese 1-2 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.84 xG and Bologna 1.06 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bologna outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Bologna attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 55% | Draw 24% | Bologna 21%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Bologna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 54%, Bologna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.31 PPG, Bologna 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.