Torino 2-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Torino have posted 3W 1D 2L at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino — 1.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Torino 1.40 PPG, Udinese 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Udinese trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 42% versus Udinese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 42% | Udinese 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.60 xG and Udinese 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.128 / defence 0.987 | Udinese attack 0.719 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.409. Data: 12 Torino games / 12 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 51% | Draw 25% | Udinese 24%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 4.17. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Torino 50% | Udinese 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 51% | Draw 25% | Udinese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Torino 1.60 / Udinese 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.128 / def 0.987 | Udinese attack 0.719 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Torino (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Udinese xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Udinese kick off?
Torino vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Udinese?
Torino 2 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Torino vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Udinese part of?
Torino vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 51% chance of winning, Udinese a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Torino and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torino and Udinese in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.13) and Udinese's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.00
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Torino xG
Total xG
2.60
1.00
Udinese xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
5%
21.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Torino and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Torino and 1.00 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Torino have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 4W 2D 6L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.17 PPG, Udinese on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Torino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Udinese in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Udinese have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Udinese away?
Torino's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 2.00 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Torino's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Torino
2
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 5, Udinese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Udinese?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 40%, Udinese 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Torino) and 20% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Udinese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Torino's recent matches and 40% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Torino's recent games and 20% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Udinese tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Udinese in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Udinese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Udinese 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.60 xG and Udinese 1.00 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Udinese attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 51% | Draw 25% | Udinese 24%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 42%, Udinese 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.17 PPG, Udinese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.