Torino 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Torino take on Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico di Torino plays host to Torino versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico di Torino: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico di Torino than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Genoa have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Torino, 0.70 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Torino 2W, Genoa 1W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 44% versus Genoa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 31% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.97 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.798 / defence 0.951 | Genoa attack 1.023 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.060. Torino's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Torino games / 45 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 30% | Draw 36% | Genoa 34%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Genoa 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 30% | Genoa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 30% | Draw 36% | Genoa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Torino 0.97 / Genoa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.798 / def 0.951 | Genoa attack 1.023 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Genoa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Genoa kick off?
Torino vs Genoa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Genoa?
Torino 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Torino vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Genoa part of?
Torino vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 30% chance of winning, Genoa a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Torino and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Genoa?
Record (6 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 3 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Torino and Genoa in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Genoa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.80x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (1.02x) against Torino's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.29
36%
2.78
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Torino xG
Total xG
2.00
1.03
Genoa xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Torino and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Torino and 1.03 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Torino come into this having played 45 games, going 12W 16D 17L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.02 PPG from 45 outings (10W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Torino against 1.02 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Torino's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torino are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.89 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Genoa in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 12W 16D 17L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 16D 19L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Genoa away?
Torino's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.32 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 3-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Torino
3
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Torino have won 3, Genoa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Genoa?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 36%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Torino and 41% for Genoa.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 41% of games; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Torino's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Torino's recent games and 41% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Genoa tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Genoa in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.97 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Torino beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 30% | Draw 36% | Genoa 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 31%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.16 PPG, Genoa 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.