Spezia 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Alberto Picco to take on Spezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 4.00 conceded. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Udinese's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Spezia's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.41 xG and Udinese 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.955 / defence 1.150 | Udinese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.527. Data: 2 Spezia games / 2 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Spezia 36% | Draw 25% | Udinese 40%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 36% | Draw 25% | Udinese 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Spezia 1.41 / Udinese 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.955 / def 1.150 | Udinese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.527 • Poisson stance: Udinese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Udinese xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Udinese kick off?
Spezia vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Udinese?
Spezia 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Spezia vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Udinese part of?
Spezia vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 36% chance of winning, Udinese a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Spezia and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Udinese in?
Spezia (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 4.00 | L5 D-L. Udinese (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.95) and Udinese's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
36%
2.80
25%
4.04
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.90
1.49
Udinese xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Spezia and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Spezia and 1.49 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Udinese are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Udinese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Udinese in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Udinese have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Spezia or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Udinese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Spezia's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Udinese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Udinese 2-2 Spezia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Spezia's games and 50% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Spezia's matches and 100% of Udinese's.
Do Spezia and Udinese tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Udinese in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.41 xG and Udinese 1.49 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Udinese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 36% | Draw 25% | Udinese 40%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 100%, Udinese 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spezia managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.