Spezia 1-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Spezia welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's away record: 1W 4D 4L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.30 (Hellas Verona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Hellas Verona in 78% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Spezia have won 0, Hellas Verona 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 58% and Hellas Verona 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 58% | Hellas Verona 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.46 xG and Hellas Verona 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.824 / defence 1.064 | Hellas Verona attack 0.871 / defence 1.516. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.478. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.516 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Spezia games / 19 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 35%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Hellas Verona 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 67% | Hellas Verona 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Spezia 1.46 / Hellas Verona 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.824 / def 1.064 | Hellas Verona attack 0.871 / def 1.516 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Spezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Hellas Verona xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Spezia vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 6 January 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Spezia 1 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is Spezia vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Hellas Verona part of?
Spezia vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 39% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spezia and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Spezia and Hellas Verona in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.82) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
39%
2.53
25%
3.98
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.83
1.37
Hellas Verona xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Spezia and 1.37 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 4W 4D 11L from 19 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 7L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hellas Verona by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 1W 4D 4L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hellas Verona's season.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.79 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Hellas Verona away?
Spezia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Hellas Verona runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Hellas Verona won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
From 5 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Spezia 1-3 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spezia at 67%, Hellas Verona at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Spezia) and 56% (Hellas Verona).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spezia's games and 78% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Spezia's recent games and 56% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Spezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Spezia 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.46 xG and Hellas Verona 1.37 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.52, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 35%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 58%, Hellas Verona 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.