Sassuolo 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Udinese at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sassuolo's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Udinese (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sassuolo 0W, Udinese 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 80% and Udinese 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 80% | Udinese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.67 xG and Udinese 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.164 / defence 1.303 | Udinese attack 1.065 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.313. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Sassuolo games / 35 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 35% | Draw 23% | Udinese 41%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Udinese 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 90% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 35% | Draw 23% | Udinese 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Sassuolo 1.67 / Udinese 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.164 / def 1.303 | Udinese attack 1.065 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Udinese xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Udinese kick off?
Sassuolo vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Sassuolo 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Sassuolo vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Udinese part of?
Sassuolo vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 35% chance of winning, Udinese a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sassuolo and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 0 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and Udinese in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.16) and Udinese's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.06x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
35%
2.83
23%
4.30
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.49
1.82
Udinese xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.49
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.82 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 12W 10D 13L from 35 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 12L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.23 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 4W 6D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Udinese in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Udinese in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Udinese have gone 10W 13D 12L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Udinese away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.35 PPG; Udinese away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
4
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Udinese have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Udinese 1-2 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 76%, Udinese 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Sassuolo and 59% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Sassuolo's games and 53% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Sassuolo's matches and 59% of Udinese's.
Do Sassuolo and Udinese tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Udinese in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 36, as Sassuolo and Udinese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.67 xG and Udinese 1.82 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Udinese landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.16 / defence 1.30 against Udinese attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 35% | Draw 23% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 80%, Udinese 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.31 PPG, Udinese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.