Sassuolo 2-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sassuolo at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Pisa travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 November 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 4W 1D 5L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Pisa — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sassuolo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sassuolo, 1 for Pisa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Sassuolo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 53% versus Pisa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 51% | Pisa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.46 xG and Pisa 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.844 / defence 1.125 | Pisa attack 1.046 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.124. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Sassuolo games / 11 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 28% | Pisa 33%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 40% | Pisa 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 28% | Pisa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Sassuolo 1.46 / Pisa 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.844 / def 1.125 | Pisa attack 1.046 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Pisa xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Pisa kick off?
Sassuolo vs Pisa kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 24 November 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Sassuolo 2 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Sassuolo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Pisa part of?
Sassuolo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 39% chance of winning, Pisa a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sassuolo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and Pisa in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.84) and Pisa's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.55
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
Pisa xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.32 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 49 games, going 30W 8D 11L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.69 PPG from 49 outings (23W 14D 12L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 2.00 PPG, Pisa on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 16W 2D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.43 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 30W 8D 11L in their last 49 games (2.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Pisa away?
Sassuolo's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 2.08 PPG; Pisa away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sassuolo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Pisa 1-3 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Pisa?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 46%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sassuolo) and 50% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 54% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sassuolo's recent games and 50% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Pisa tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo and Pisa finished level at 2-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.46 xG and Pisa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Pisa attack 1.05 / defence 1.47, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 39% | Draw 28% | Pisa 33%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 51%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 2.00 PPG, Pisa 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.