Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 4W 2D 4L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bologna's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sassuolo lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 53% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 53% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.21 xG and Bologna 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.921 / defence 1.271 | Bologna attack 1.207 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.177. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Sassuolo games / 66 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 1.96. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Sassuolo 1.21 / Bologna 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.921 / def 1.271 | Bologna attack 1.207 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Bologna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Bologna xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Bologna kick off?
Sassuolo vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Sassuolo 0 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Sassuolo vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Bologna part of?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 26% chance of winning, Bologna a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sassuolo and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Record (7 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 3 | Bologna 3W.
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.21x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
26%
3.91
23%
4.33
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.02
1.80
Bologna xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
4%
23.76
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.80 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo come into this having played 66 games, going 36W 12D 18L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.53 PPG from 66 outings (27W 20D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.53 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sassuolo's home form reads 20W 4D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.42 points per game from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 36W 12D 18L in their last 66 games (1.82 PPG), while Bologna have gone 27W 20D 19L in their last 66 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Bologna away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.94 PPG; Bologna away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 46%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sassuolo) and 58% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 58% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sassuolo's recent games and 58% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Bologna tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bologna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Sassuolo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.21 xG and Bologna 1.80 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.82 PPG, Bologna 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.