Sampdoria 0-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 58%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sampdoria vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Sampdoria welcome Monza to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Monza have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Monza's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Monza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 60% | Monza 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.72 xG and Monza 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.883 / defence 1.018 | Monza attack 0.686 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.142. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Sampdoria games / 7 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 58% | Draw 27% | Monza 15%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sampdoria (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 50% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 58% | Draw 27% | Monza 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Sampdoria 1.72 / Monza 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.883 / def 1.018 | Monza attack 0.686 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Monza xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Monza kick off?
Sampdoria vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Monza?
Sampdoria 0 - 3 Monza.
Where is Sampdoria vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Monza part of?
Sampdoria vs Monza is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 58% chance of winning, Monza a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sampdoria and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Monza in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
58%
1.74
27%
3.70
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.51
0.80
Monza xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
36.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.80 for Monza, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 10W 8D 27L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza's form line: 23W 8D 14L from 45 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
On the road, Monza have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.58 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Monza in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 10W 8D 27L in their last 45 games (0.84 PPG), while Monza have gone 23W 8D 14L in their last 45 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.05 PPG; Monza away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Monza in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Monza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Monza have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Monza won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Monza have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Sampdoria 0-3 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 68%, Monza 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sampdoria and 54% for Monza. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sampdoria's games and 54% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sampdoria's matches and 54% of Monza's.
Do Sampdoria and Monza tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Monza in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Sampdoria 0-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.72 xG and Monza 0.80 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Monza outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Monza attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 58% | Draw 27% | Monza 15%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 60%, Monza 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.