Sampdoria 1-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lazio travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sampdoria at 1.00 PPG versus Lazio's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Lazio in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 60% and Lazio 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 80% | Lazio 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.91 xG and Lazio 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.977 / defence 1.333 | Lazio attack 0.689 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.449. Lazio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Sampdoria games / 15 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 51% | Draw 22% | Lazio 27%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Lazio 3.70. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 75% | Lazio 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 51% | Draw 22% | Lazio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Sampdoria 1.91 / Lazio 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.977 / def 1.333 | Lazio attack 0.689 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lazio xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Lazio kick off?
Sampdoria vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Lazio?
Sampdoria 1 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Sampdoria vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Lazio part of?
Sampdoria vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 51% chance of winning, Lazio a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sampdoria and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Lazio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Lazio in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.98) and Lazio's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
51%
1.96
22%
4.48
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.24
1.33
Lazio xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
4%
25.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.33 for Lazio, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 3D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lazio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.93 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lazio in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Lazio in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Lazio have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Lazio away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.14 PPG; Lazio away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Lazio runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Lazio?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Lazio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2023, when Lazio 1-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sampdoria at 86%, Lazio at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sampdoria and 71% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Sampdoria's games and 57% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sampdoria's matches and 71% of Lazio's.
Do Sampdoria and Lazio tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lazio in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Sampdoria 1-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.91 xG and Lazio 1.33 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.33 against Lazio attack 0.69 / defence 1.55, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 51% | Draw 22% | Lazio 27%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 80%, Lazio 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.