Sampdoria 0-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sampdoria face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Inter at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 0, Inter 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Inter in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 46% versus Inter 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 52% | Inter 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.99 xG and Inter 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.616 / defence 1.165 | Inter attack 1.252 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.175. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.616 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Sampdoria games / 59 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 22% | Draw 24% | Inter 54%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 1.85. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 20% | Inter 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 22% | Draw 24% | Inter 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Sampdoria 0.99 / Inter 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.616 / def 1.165 | Inter attack 1.252 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Inter (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Inter xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Inter kick off?
Sampdoria vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Inter?
Sampdoria 0 - 0 Inter.
Where is Sampdoria vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Inter part of?
Sampdoria vs Inter is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 22% chance of winning, Inter a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sampdoria and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Inter?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Inter in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Inter (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.62) and Inter's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
22%
4.60
24%
4.19
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.70
1.71
Inter xG
4.60
22%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
4%
25.56
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.71 for Inter, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria come into this having played 59 games, going 12W 10D 37L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.15 PPG from 59 outings (39W 10D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sampdoria's home form reads 6W 5D 18L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 1.90 points per game from 29 outings (16W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.12 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Inter in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 10D 37L in their last 59 games (0.78 PPG), while Inter have gone 39W 10D 10L in their last 59 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.79 PPG; Inter away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Inter in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Inter won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
2
Draws
2
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Inter?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Inter have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2023, when Sampdoria 0-0 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 52%, Inter 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Sampdoria and 69% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sampdoria's games and 72% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sampdoria's matches and 69% of Inter's.
Do Sampdoria and Inter tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Inter in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Inter finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.99 xG and Inter 1.71 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Inter landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.62 / defence 1.17 against Inter attack 1.25 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 22% | Draw 24% | Inter 54%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 52%, Inter 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.