Sampdoria 1-3 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Atalanta at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 3D 4L from 9 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atalanta — All Games: 4W 3D 2L from 9 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.22. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atalanta have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.67 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 0.67 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.67 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sampdoria register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Atalanta in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 56% and Atalanta 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 78% | Atalanta 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.24 xG and Atalanta 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.957 / defence 1.367 | Atalanta attack 1.041 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.473. Data: 9 Sampdoria games / 9 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 22% | Draw 21% | Atalanta 57%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Atalanta 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 60% | Atalanta 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 22% | Draw 21% | Atalanta 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Sampdoria 1.24 / Atalanta 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.957 / def 1.367 | Atalanta attack 1.041 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Atalanta xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Atalanta kick off?
Sampdoria vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Atalanta?
Sampdoria 1 - 3 Atalanta.
Where is Sampdoria vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Atalanta part of?
Sampdoria vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 22% chance of winning, Atalanta a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sampdoria and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Atalanta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Atalanta in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.96) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
22%
4.52
21%
4.80
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.34
2.10
Atalanta xG
4.52
22%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
12%
8.15
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
3%
36.86
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sampdoria and 2.10 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.67 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.25 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Atalanta runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Atalanta won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Atalanta?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Atalanta have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Atalanta 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sampdoria at 75%, Atalanta at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sampdoria and 75% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sampdoria's games and 75% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sampdoria's matches and 75% of Atalanta's.
Do Sampdoria and Atalanta tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Sampdoria 1-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.24 xG and Atalanta 2.10 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.96 / defence 1.37 against Atalanta attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 22% | Draw 21% | Atalanta 57%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 78%, Atalanta 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.