Sampdoria 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Sampdoria welcome AS Roma to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sampdoria, 0 for AS Roma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
AS Roma trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 57% versus AS Roma 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 67% | AS Roma 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.49 xG and AS Roma 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.115 / defence 1.349 | AS Roma attack 1.055 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.264. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Sampdoria games / 30 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 44%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 80% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Sampdoria 1.49 / AS Roma 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.115 / def 1.349 | AS Roma attack 1.055 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.80
AS Roma xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs AS Roma kick off?
Sampdoria vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Sampdoria vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs AS Roma part of?
Sampdoria vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 31% chance of winning, AS Roma a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sampdoria and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and AS Roma in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.89
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.29
1.80
AS Roma xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
5%
19.76
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.80 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 8W 5D 17L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 15W 6D 9L from 30 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 6W 2D 6L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 8W 5D 17L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 15W 6D 9L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.07 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AS Roma in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when AS Roma won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, AS Roma have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when AS Roma 3-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sampdoria at 79%, AS Roma at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Sampdoria and 64% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Sampdoria's games and 64% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Sampdoria's matches and 64% of AS Roma's.
Do Sampdoria and AS Roma tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.49 xG and AS Roma 1.80 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AS Roma landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.11 / defence 1.35 against AS Roma attack 1.05 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 31% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 44%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 67%, AS Roma 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.