Parma 2-3 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cagliari at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Parma are significantly better at Stadio Ennio Tardini than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Cagliari and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 65% and Cagliari 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 54% | Cagliari 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.47 xG and Cagliari 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.976 / defence 1.237 | Cagliari attack 0.806 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.239. Data: 5 Parma games / 43 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 28%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Cagliari 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 70% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Parma 1.47 / Cagliari 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.976 / def 1.237 | Cagliari attack 0.806 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Parma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cagliari xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cagliari kick off?
Parma vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma 2 - 3 Cagliari.
Where is Parma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cagliari part of?
Parma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 39% chance of winning, Cagliari a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Parma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Parma and Cagliari in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
39%
2.57
33%
3.04
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Parma xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Cagliari xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Parma and 1.24 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 22W 15D 6L from 43 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 21L across 43 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 10W 8D 2L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 2W 5D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Cagliari in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 22W 15D 6L in their last 43 games (1.88 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cagliari away?
Parma's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.90 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Parma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cagliari in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
4
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cagliari have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Parma 1-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 75%, Cagliari 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Parma) and 50% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Parma's games and 45% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Parma's recent games and 50% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cagliari tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Parma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.47 xG and Cagliari 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Cagliari attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 39% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 28%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 54%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.