Napoli 2-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Napoli face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Napoli host Torino at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.
Torino — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Torino have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Napoli hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Torino, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Torino winning.
The historical record gives Napoli a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Torino in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 46% versus Torino 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 49% | Torino 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 2.00 xG and Torino 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.177 / defence 0.908 | Torino attack 0.843 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.183. Torino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Napoli games / 65 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 63% | Draw 21% | Torino 16%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Torino 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 70% | Torino 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 63% | Draw 21% | Torino 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Napoli 2.00 / Torino 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.177 / def 0.908 | Torino attack 0.843 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Napoli (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Torino xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Torino kick off?
Napoli vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Torino?
Napoli 2 - 1 Torino.
Where is Napoli vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Torino part of?
Napoli vs Torino is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 63% chance of winning, Torino a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Napoli and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Torino?
Record (9 meetings): Napoli 6W | Draws 1 | Torino 2W.
What form are Napoli and Torino in?
Napoli (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Torino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.18) and Torino's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.79
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.90
0.91
Torino xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
45.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Napoli and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Napoli and 0.91 for Torino, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Torino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 40W 15D 10L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 18W 20D 27L from 65 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.35 PPG from 31 outings (22W 7D 2L).
On the road, Torino have gone 7W 10D 14L from 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Torino in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 40W 15D 10L in their last 65 games (2.08 PPG), while Torino have gone 18W 20D 27L in their last 65 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Torino away?
Napoli's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.35 PPG; Torino away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Napoli or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Torino in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2023, when Napoli won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Torino specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Napoli
1
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 7, Torino have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Torino?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 52%, Torino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Napoli) and 45% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Torino in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Napoli's recent matches and 42% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Napoli's recent games and 45% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Torino tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Torino in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Torino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Torino 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 2.00 xG and Torino 0.91 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against Torino attack 0.84 / defence 1.35, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 63% | Draw 21% | Torino 16%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 49%, Torino 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.