Napoli 4-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Napoli face Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Napoli have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 1.50 PPG lead over Cremonese (2.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Napoli, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Cremonese — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Napoli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Napoli and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 46% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 48% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.61 xG and Cremonese 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.092 / defence 0.956 | Cremonese attack 0.698 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.151. Data: 71 Napoli games / 33 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 57% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 18%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Cremonese 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 60% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 57% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Napoli 1.61 / Cremonese 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.092 / def 0.956 | Cremonese attack 0.698 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Napoli (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cremonese xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Napoli vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Cremonese?
Napoli 4 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Napoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Cremonese part of?
Napoli vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 57% chance of winning, Cremonese a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Napoli and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Napoli 3W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Napoli and Cremonese in?
Napoli (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.09) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.70x) against Napoli's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.02
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.38
0.77
Cremonese xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
4%
28.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Napoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Napoli and 0.77 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Napoli's recent record stands at 44W 16D 11L from 71 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 22W 24D 25L across 71 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 25W 7D 3L from 35 games — 2.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 12W 8D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.27 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 44W 16D 11L in their last 71 games (2.08 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 22W 24D 25L in their last 71 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Cremonese away?
Napoli's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.34 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Napoli or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cremonese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 4-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Napoli
0
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Cremonese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Napoli 4-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Cremonese?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 51%, Cremonese 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Napoli) and 54% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cremonese in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Napoli's recent matches and 49% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Napoli's recent games and 54% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Cremonese tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Cremonese 4-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.61 xG and Cremonese 0.77 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Cremonese attack 0.70 / defence 1.18, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 57% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 18%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 48%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.