Monza 1-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Atalanta in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monza have posted 4W 1D 5L at U-Power Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atalanta's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Monza, 1.50 for Atalanta — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Atalanta hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Atalanta winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atalanta have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Monza — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 45% versus Atalanta 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 41% | Atalanta 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.42 xG and Atalanta 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.995 / defence 1.257 | Atalanta attack 1.211 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.189. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Monza games / 69 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 30% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 47%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Atalanta 2.13. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Atalanta 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 30% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Monza 1.42 / Atalanta 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.995 / def 1.257 | Atalanta attack 1.211 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Atalanta xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Atalanta kick off?
Monza vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Atalanta?
Monza 1 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Monza vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Atalanta part of?
Monza vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 30% chance of winning, Atalanta a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Monza and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Atalanta?
Record (3 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 3W.
What form are Monza and Atalanta in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Monza's attack rating (0.99) and Atalanta's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.21x) against Monza's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
30%
3.32
23%
4.30
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Monza xG
Total xG
3.23
1.81
Atalanta xG
3.32
30%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Monza and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Monza and 1.81 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza come into this having played 69 games, going 25W 20D 24L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.67 PPG from 69 outings (34W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Monza against 1.67 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Monza's home form reads 13W 10D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.38 points per game from 34 outings (13W 8D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 25W 20D 24L in their last 69 games (1.38 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 34W 13D 22L in their last 69 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Atalanta away?
Monza's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.44 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Monza or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atalanta in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Atalanta go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 0-4 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
0
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Atalanta?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, Atalanta have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Monza 0-4 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Atalanta 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Monza) and 53% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 53% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Monza's recent games and 53% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Atalanta tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Monza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.42 xG and Atalanta 1.81 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against Atalanta attack 1.21 / defence 1.07, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 30% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 47%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 41%, Atalanta 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.38 PPG, Atalanta 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.