Lazio 3-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Lazio welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lazio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lazio, 3 for Bologna and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lazio in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 55% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 49% | Bologna 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.81 xG and Bologna 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.240 / defence 0.870 | Bologna attack 1.172 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.333. Data: 50 Lazio games / 49 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 29%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 3.45. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 70% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Lazio 1.81 / Bologna 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.240 / def 0.870 | Bologna attack 1.172 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Lazio (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bologna xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Bologna kick off?
Lazio vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Lazio 3 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Lazio vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Bologna part of?
Lazio vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 48% chance of winning, Bologna a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lazio and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
Record (6 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 3W.
What form are Lazio and Bologna in?
Lazio (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lazio vs Bologna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.25
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.17
1.36
Bologna xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
21.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Lazio and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Lazio and 1.36 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Lazio have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 26W 8D 15L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 22W 20D 7L from 49 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.76 PPG, Bologna on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lazio have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 9W 11D 5L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.41 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 26W 8D 15L in their last 49 games (1.76 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 20D 7L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Bologna away?
Lazio's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.00 PPG; Bologna away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Lazio or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bologna 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 48%, Bologna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lazio) and 56% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bologna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lazio's recent matches and 60% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lazio's recent games and 56% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Bologna tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bologna in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Bologna 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.81 xG and Bologna 1.36 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.24 / defence 0.87 against Bologna attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 29%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 49%, Bologna 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.76 PPG, Bologna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.