Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventus face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Juventus (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.
Fiorentina have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 0.80 PPG lead over Fiorentina (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juventus lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 46% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 40% | Fiorentina 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 2.01 xG and Fiorentina 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.268 / defence 0.805 | Fiorentina attack 0.984 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.131. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Juventus games / 74 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 63% | Draw 21% | Fiorentina 16%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Fiorentina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | Fiorentina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 63% | Draw 21% | Fiorentina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Juventus 2.01 / Fiorentina 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.268 / def 0.805 | Fiorentina attack 0.984 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Juventus (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Fiorentina xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Fiorentina kick off?
Juventus vs Fiorentina kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Juventus 0 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Juventus vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Fiorentina part of?
Juventus vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 63% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Juventus and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Fiorentina?
Record (9 meetings): Juventus 4W | Draws 3 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Juventus and Fiorentina in?
Juventus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventus's attack rating (1.27) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.98x) against Juventus's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.72
16%
6.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.91
0.90
Fiorentina xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
6.38
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
47.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Juventus and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Juventus and 0.90 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 37W 27D 10L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 27W 22D 25L from 74 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.08 PPG from 37 outings (21W 14D 2L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 11W 10D 16L from 37 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 37W 27D 10L in their last 74 games (1.86 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 27W 22D 25L in their last 74 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Fiorentina away?
Juventus's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.08 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Juventus or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Fiorentina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Fiorentina?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 43%, Fiorentina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Juventus) and 60% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Juventus's recent matches and 57% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Juventus's recent games and 60% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Juventus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Juventus 0-2 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 2.01 xG and Fiorentina 0.90 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Juventus fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Fiorentina outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.27 / defence 0.81 against Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 63% | Draw 21% | Fiorentina 16%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 40%, Fiorentina 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.