Juventus 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juventus face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Juventus (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Juventus have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Juventus are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Juventus against 1.00 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Juventus edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Juventus 1–0 Fiorentina — a Juventus win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 37% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 37% | Fiorentina 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.27 xG and Fiorentina 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.988 / defence 0.833 | Fiorentina attack 0.848 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.191. Data: built from Juventus's last 68 games and Fiorentina's last 67.
Result probabilities: Juventus 45% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 24%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.21 | Draw 3.22 | Fiorentina 4.23. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Juventus's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 50% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 45% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Juventus 1.27 / Fiorentina 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.988 / def 0.833 | Fiorentina attack 0.848 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Juventus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Fiorentina xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventus vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Juventus vs Fiorentina kick off?
Juventus vs Fiorentina kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Juventus 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Juventus vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Fiorentina part of?
Juventus vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 45% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Juventus and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Juventus vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventus's attack rating (0.99) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.85x) against Juventus's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Juventus's last 68 games and Fiorentina's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.22
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.11
0.84
Fiorentina xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Juventus and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Juventus and 0.84 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 38W 14D 15L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 27W 18D 22L from 67 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 33 home games (21W 8D 4L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 10W 9D 14L from their last 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
Juventus (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventus
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Juventus vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Juventus and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 38W 14D 15L in their last 67 games (1.91 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 27W 18D 22L in their last 67 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Fiorentina away?
Juventus's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.15 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Juventus or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won Fiorentina 3-0 Juventus on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Juventus
4
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventus vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventus have won 3, Fiorentina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Fiorentina 2-2 Juventus.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 39%, Fiorentina 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Juventus) and 33% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Fiorentina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventus vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventus and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Juventus's recent matches and 46% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juventus and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Juventus's recent games and 33% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Juventus's recent matches and 73% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.27 xG and Fiorentina 0.84 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against Fiorentina attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 45% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 24%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 37%, Fiorentina 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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