Juventus 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juventus face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Stadium plays host to Juventus versus Bologna in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Juventus have posted 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Bologna have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Juventus, 1.90 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Juventus, 0 for Bologna and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended Juventus 3–3 Bologna — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 43% versus Bologna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 37% | Bologna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.53 xG and Bologna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.955 / defence 0.706 | Bologna attack 1.105 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.261. Juventus have a tight defence (rating 0.706), which is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Data: built from Juventus's last 52 games and Bologna's last 51.
Result probabilities: Juventus 49% | Draw 27% | Bologna 23%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.03 | Draw 3.65 | Bologna 4.27. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Juventus's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 30% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 49% | Draw 27% | Bologna 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Juventus 1.53 / Bologna 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.955 / def 0.706 | Bologna attack 1.105 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Juventus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bologna xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventus vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Juventus vs Bologna kick off?
Juventus vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Juventus 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Juventus vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Bologna part of?
Juventus vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 49% chance of winning, Bologna a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Juventus and Bologna will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Juventus vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.10x) against Juventus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Juventus's last 52 games and Bologna's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.65
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.52
0.98
Bologna xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
19.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventus vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Juventus and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Juventus and 0.98 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventus come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 22D 5L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.75 PPG from 51 outings (23W 20D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Juventus against 1.75 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventus's home form reads 14W 11D 1L across their last 26 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 11D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventus are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.41 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; Bologna in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Bologna
Blended
Juventus (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventus
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Juventus vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Juventus and Bologna in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 24W 22D 5L in their last 51 games (1.84 PPG), while Bologna have gone 23W 20D 8L in their last 51 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Bologna away?
Juventus's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.04 PPG; Bologna away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Juventus or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Bologna in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Juventus and Bologna, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won Juventus 3-0 Bologna on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
6
Draws
0
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventus vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventus have won 4, Bologna have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Bologna?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventus see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 38%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Juventus) and 58% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Bologna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventus vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventus and Bologna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Juventus's recent matches and 58% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juventus and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Juventus's recent games and 58% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Juventus's recent matches and 73% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Juventus and Bologna drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.53 xG and Bologna 0.98 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.95 / defence 0.71 against Bologna attack 1.10 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 49% | Draw 27% | Bologna 23%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 37%, Bologna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.84 PPG, Bologna 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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