Inter 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Inter are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Inter have won 2, Bologna 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bologna in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 47% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 58% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.64 xG and Bologna 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.477 / defence 0.881 | Bologna attack 0.927 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.074. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.477 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Inter games / 45 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 18%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 5.56. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Inter 50% | Bologna 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Inter 1.64 / Bologna 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.477 / def 0.881 | Bologna attack 0.927 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Inter (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bologna xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Bologna kick off?
Inter vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Bologna?
Inter 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Inter vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Bologna part of?
Inter vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 54% chance of winning, Bologna a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Inter and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Inter 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Inter and Bologna in?
Inter (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.48) and Bologna's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.56
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Inter xG
Total xG
2.52
0.88
Bologna xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
28.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Inter and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Inter and 0.88 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Inter have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 29W 3D 13L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 16W 16D 13L from 45 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (16W 0D 6L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 7W 6D 9L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.31 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Bologna in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 29W 3D 13L in their last 45 games (2.00 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 16D 13L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Bologna away?
Inter's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.18 PPG; Bologna away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Inter or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bologna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Bologna?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 41%, Bologna 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Inter) and 64% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bologna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Inter's recent matches and 68% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Inter's matches and 64% of Bologna's.
Do Inter and Bologna tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bologna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 8, as Inter and Bologna drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.64 xG and Bologna 0.88 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.48 / defence 0.88 against Bologna attack 0.93 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 18%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 58%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.