Hellas Verona 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Monza at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Monza — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Monza have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hellas Verona at 1.30 PPG versus Monza's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 0, Monza 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 67% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 54% | Monza 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.29 xG and Monza 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.881 / defence 1.119 | Monza attack 0.910 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.113. Data: 63 Hellas Verona games / 25 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 27% | Monza 32%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 50% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 27% | Monza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Hellas Verona 1.29 / Monza 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.881 / def 1.119 | Monza attack 0.910 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Monza xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Monza kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Hellas Verona 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Monza part of?
Hellas Verona vs Monza is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 40% chance of winning, Monza a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hellas Verona and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.88) and Monza's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.65
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.42
1.13
Monza xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.13 for Monza, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 17D 28L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 31W 12D 20L from 63 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (13W 4D 14L).
On the road, Monza have gone 12W 6D 13L from 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.54 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 18W 17D 28L in their last 63 games (1.13 PPG), while Monza have gone 31W 12D 20L in their last 63 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Monza away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.39 PPG; Monza away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Monza in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2024, when Monza won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Monza have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 64%, Monza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hellas Verona) and 52% (Monza). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hellas Verona's games and 48% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hellas Verona's matches and 52% of Monza's.
Do Hellas Verona and Monza tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Monza in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 26, as Hellas Verona and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.29 xG and Monza 1.13 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Monza attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 27% | Monza 32%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 54%, Monza 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.