Hellas Verona 2-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Thursday 15 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hellas Verona have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bologna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.20 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bologna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hellas Verona lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 46% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 51% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.04 xG and Bologna 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.866 / defence 1.255 | Bologna attack 1.209 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.157. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Hellas Verona games / 57 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 22% | Draw 24% | Bologna 54%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 1.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 22% | Draw 24% | Bologna 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Hellas Verona 1.04 / Bologna 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.866 / def 1.255 | Bologna attack 1.209 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Bologna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Bologna kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 15 January 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Hellas Verona 2 - 3 Bologna.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Bologna part of?
Hellas Verona vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 22% chance of winning, Bologna a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hellas Verona and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): Hellas Verona 3W | Draws 2 | Bologna 3W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Bologna in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.21x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
22%
4.49
24%
4.25
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.79
1.76
Bologna xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
4%
25.97
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.76 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 12W 14D 31L from 57 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 14L across 57 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 5W 8D 15L from 28 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 9W 11D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.46 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Bologna in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 14D 31L in their last 57 games (0.88 PPG), while Bologna have gone 23W 20D 14L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.82 PPG; Bologna away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 43%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Hellas Verona) and 54% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Hellas Verona's matches and 54% of Bologna's.
Do Hellas Verona and Bologna tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bologna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Hellas Verona 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Hellas Verona 2-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.04 xG and Bologna 1.76 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 22% | Draw 24% | Bologna 54%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.