Hellas Verona 3-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Hellas Verona welcome AS Roma to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 3W 0D 0L from 3 Serie A matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of Hellas Verona's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hellas Verona register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 67% and AS Roma 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 67% | AS Roma 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.20 xG and AS Roma 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.956 / defence 1.447 | AS Roma attack 1.148 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.422. Data: 3 Hellas Verona games / 3 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 18% | Draw 19% | AS Roma 63%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | AS Roma 1.59. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 67% | AS Roma 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 18% | Draw 19% | AS Roma 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 63% | xG Hellas Verona 1.20 / AS Roma 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.956 / def 1.447 | AS Roma attack 1.148 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
2.36
AS Roma xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Hellas Verona 3 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma part of?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 18% chance of winning, AS Roma a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hellas Verona and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 2.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
18%
5.56
19%
5.34
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.56
2.36
AS Roma xG
5.56
18%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
9%
10.60
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
2%
59.00
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 2.36 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 3.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; AS Roma in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Hellas Verona or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hellas Verona at 67%, AS Roma at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hellas Verona and 100% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 33%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hellas Verona's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hellas Verona's matches and 100% of AS Roma's.
Do Hellas Verona and AS Roma tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat AS Roma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat AS Roma 3-2 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.20 xG and AS Roma 2.36 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.96 / defence 1.45 against AS Roma attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 18% | Draw 19% | AS Roma 63%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 67%, AS Roma 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.