Hellas Verona 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 2 as Hellas Verona welcome AS Roma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.10 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 2 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus AS Roma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 38% | AS Roma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.18 xG and AS Roma 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.927 / defence 1.083 | AS Roma attack 0.935 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.277. Data: 39 Hellas Verona games / 39 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 50% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hellas Verona 1.18 / AS Roma 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.927 / def 1.083 | AS Roma attack 0.935 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.29
AS Roma xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma part of?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 34% chance of winning, AS Roma a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hellas Verona and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
Record (4 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
34%
2.96
27%
3.69
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.47
1.29
AS Roma xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.29 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 9W 10D 20L from 39 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 11L across 39 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.33 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 18W 10D 11L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.17 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 56%, AS Roma 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 50% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hellas Verona's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and AS Roma tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.18 xG and AS Roma 1.29 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against AS Roma attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 38%, AS Roma 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.