Genoa 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Genoa at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 38 as Genoa welcome Bologna to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Bologna's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Genoa) versus 1.00 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Genoa have won 0, Bologna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Genoa in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

Bologna in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 43% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 43% | Bologna 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.02 xG and Bologna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.702 / defence 1.002 | Bologna attack 0.718 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.360. Genoa's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Genoa games / 37 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 34% | Bologna 32%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Bologna 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights