Fiorentina 2-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Udinese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Udinese have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Fiorentina, 1.50 for Udinese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Udinese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Udinese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 51% | Udinese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.62 xG and Udinese 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.145 / defence 0.932 | Udinese attack 0.668 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.136. Data: 72 Fiorentina games / 72 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 70% | Udinese 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Fiorentina 1.62 / Udinese 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.145 / def 0.932 | Udinese attack 0.668 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Udinese xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Udinese kick off?
Fiorentina vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Fiorentina 2 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Fiorentina vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Udinese part of?
Fiorentina vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 59% chance of winning, Udinese a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fiorentina and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.15x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.67x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.07
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.33
0.71
Udinese xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
3%
31.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.71 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina come into this having played 72 games, going 31W 15D 26L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.29 PPG from 72 outings (22W 27D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.29 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fiorentina's home form reads 20W 8D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.14 points per game from 36 outings (10W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.47 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 31W 15D 26L in their last 72 games (1.50 PPG), while Udinese have gone 22W 27D 23L in their last 72 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Udinese away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.89 PPG; Udinese away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Udinese have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 50%, Udinese 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fiorentina) and 53% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Udinese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 47% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fiorentina's recent games and 53% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Udinese tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Udinese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Udinese 2-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.62 xG and Udinese 0.71 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Udinese attack 0.67 / defence 1.10, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 51%, Udinese 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.50 PPG, Udinese 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.