Fiorentina 2-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fiorentina, 1 for Sassuolo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 54% and Sassuolo 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 56% | Sassuolo 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.68 xG and Sassuolo 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.001 / defence 1.202 | Sassuolo attack 0.786 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.116. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Fiorentina games / 54 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 51% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 23%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Sassuolo 4.35. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 50% | Sassuolo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 51% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Fiorentina 1.68 / Sassuolo 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.001 / def 1.202 | Sassuolo attack 0.786 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sassuolo xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kick off?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo part of?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 51% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fiorentina and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.79x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.83
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.74
1.05
Sassuolo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.05 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 54 games, going 24W 10D 20L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.22 PPG from 54 outings (17W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.22 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 16W 5D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.48 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Sassuolo away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.96 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 44%, Sassuolo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Fiorentina and 78% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sassuolo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Fiorentina's games and 67% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Fiorentina's matches and 78% of Sassuolo's.
Do Fiorentina and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Sassuolo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.68 xG and Sassuolo 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Sassuolo attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 51% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 23%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 56%, Sassuolo 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.52 PPG, Sassuolo 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.