Fiorentina 3-4 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Inter at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0, Inter 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Inter trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 50% versus Inter 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 54% | Inter 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.48 xG and Inter 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.957 / defence 1.063 | Inter attack 1.241 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.153. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Fiorentina games / 48 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Inter 37%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Inter 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 20% | Inter 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Inter 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Fiorentina 1.48 / Inter 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.957 / def 1.063 | Inter attack 1.241 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Inter (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Inter xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Inter kick off?
Fiorentina vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Fiorentina 3 - 4 Inter.
Where is Fiorentina vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Inter part of?
Fiorentina vs Inter is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 35% chance of winning, Inter a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fiorentina and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Inter (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.96) and Inter's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.61
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.00
1.52
Inter xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.52 for Inter, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 9D 18L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.12 PPG from 48 outings (31W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fiorentina's home form reads 15W 4D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Inter have taken 1.88 points per game from 24 outings (13W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.12 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter in 60%.
Defensively: Inter in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Inter have gone 31W 9D 8L in their last 48 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Inter away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.04 PPG; Inter away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Inter in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Inter have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 38%, Inter 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Fiorentina and 67% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 71% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fiorentina's matches and 67% of Inter's.
Do Fiorentina and Inter tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Inter in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Fiorentina 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Fiorentina 3-4 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.48 xG and Inter 1.52 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inter outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Inter attack 1.24 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Inter 37%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 54%, Inter 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.